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Daily Bundesbank and federal reserve intervention and the conditional variance tale in DM/$-returns

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  • Almekinders, G.J.
  • Eijffinger, S.C.W.

    (Tilburg University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-deutsche mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Research Memorandum with number 554.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubrem:1992554

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Web page: http://www.tilburguniversity.edu/nl/over-tilburg-university/schools/economics-and-management/

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  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
  2. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S90-S99, March.
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
  5. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1984. "Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 223-239, August.
  6. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  7. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1991. "Empirical evidence on foreign exchange market intervention: Where do we stand?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152907, Tilburg University.
  8. Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, 1986. "Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1243-48, September.
  9. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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Cited by:
  1. Sheedy, Elizabeth, 1998. "Correlation in currency markets a risk-adjusted perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-82, January.

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