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Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample

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  • Horst, J.R. ter
  • Nijman, T.E.
  • Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Poor performing mutual funds are less likely to be observed in the data sets that are typically available. This so-called survivor problem can induce a substantial bias in measures of the performance of the funds and the persistence of this performance. Many studies have recently argued that survivorship bias can be avoided by analyzing a sample that contains returns on each fund up to the period of disappearance using standard techniques. Such data sets are usually referred to as 'survivorship free'. In this paper we show that the use of standard methods of analysis on a 'survivorship free' data-set typically still suffers from a bias and we show how one can easily correct for this using weights based on probit regressions. Using a sample with quarterly returns on U.S. based equity funds, we first of all model how survival probabilities depend upon historical returns, the age of the fund and upon aggregate economy-wide shocks. Subsequently we employ a Monte Carlo study to analyze the size and shape of the survivorship bias in various performance measures that arise when a 'survivorship free database' is used with standard techniques. In particular, we show that survivorship bias induces a spurious U-shape pattern in performance persistence. Finally, we show how a weighting procedure based upon probit regressions can be used to correct for the bias. In this way, we obtain bias-corrected estimates of abnormal performance relative to a one-factor and the Carhart [1997] four-factor model, as well as its persistence. Our results are in accordance with the persistence pattern found by Carhart [1997], and do not support the existence of a hot hand phenomenon in mutual fund performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 98.55.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:98.55

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Keywords: performance evaluation; investment trusts;

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References

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  1. Mark M. Carhart & Jennifer N. Carpenter & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2002. "Mutual Fund Survivorship," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1439-1463.
  2. Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
  3. William N. Goetzmann & Stephen J. Brown, 2005. "Performance Persistence," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm451, Yale School of Management.
  4. Robert MOFFIT & John FITZGERALD & Peter GOTTSCHALK, 1999. "Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Role of Selection on Observables," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 55-56, pages 129-152.
  5. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
  6. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
  7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  8. Brown, Stephen J. & Goetzmann, William N., 1997. "Mutual fund styles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 373-399, March.
  9. María Engracia ROCHINA-BARRACHINA, 1999. "A New Estimator for Panel Data Sample Selection Models," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 55-56, pages 153-181.
  10. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80.
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