Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Portfolio Approach to Mortality Shocks and Fertility Choice: Theory and Evidence from Africa


Author Info

  • Wang, R.
  • Zhou, Y.
  • Bulte, E.H.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)


Abstract: The effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on fertility in Africa remains ill understood. To align the contrasting findings of recent empirical research, we develop a portfolio model that captures the potential trade-off between "quantity" and "quality" of offspring. According to this theoretical model, the overall impact of mortality shocks on fertility is heterogeneous, and involves changes in human capital investment strategies. A key prediction is that investment switching and fertility impacts are conditional on income levels. We use African panel data to test the implications of the model, and find strong support for key model predictions. In particular, the impact of HIV prevalence on both fertility and human capital investments varies with income in a manner that is consistent with model predictions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2013-051.

as in new window
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2013051

Contact details of provider:
Web page:

Related research

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Fertility; Portfolio; Development;

Find related papers by JEL classification:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.



This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2013051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.