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Strategic Generation Capacity Choice under Demand Uncertainty: Analysis of Nash Equilibria in Electricity Markets

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  • Gürkan, G.
  • Ozdemir, O.
  • smeers, Y.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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    Abstract

    Abstract: We analyze a two-stage game of strategic firms facing uncertain demand and exerting market power in decentralized electricity markets. These firms choose their generation capacities at the first stage while anticipating a perfectly competitive future electricity spot market outcome at the second stage; thus it is a closed loop game. In general, such games can be formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and examples have been posed in the literature that have multiple or no equilibria. Therefore, it is of interest to define general sets of conditions under which solutions exist and are unique, which would enhance the value of such models for policy andmarket intelligence purposes. In this paper, we consider various types of such a closed loop model regarding the underlying price-demand relations (elastic and inelastic demand), the assumed demand uncertainty with a broad class of continuous distributions, and any finite number of players with symmetric or asymmetric costs. We establish sufficient conditions for the random demand’s probability distribution which guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria in most of the cases of this closed loop model. We identify a broad class of commonly used continuous probability distributions satisfying these conditions.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2013-044.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2013044

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    Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

    Related research

    Keywords: electricity markets; strategic generation investment modeling; demand uncertainty; existence and uniqueness of equilibrium;

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    1. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, December.
    2. Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
    3. Jean J. Gabszewicz & Sougata Poddar, 1997. "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 131-146.
    4. Mark Bagnoli & Ted Bergstrom, 2005. "Log-concave probability and its applications," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 445-469, 08.
    5. Lagerlöf Johan N.M., 2006. "Equilibrium Uniqueness in a Cournot Model with Demand Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6, December.
    6. Grimm, Veronika & Zoettl, Gregor, 2008. "Strategic capacity choice under uncertainty: the impact of market structure on investment and welfare," IWQW Discussion Paper Series 01/2008, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW).
    7. Daniel De Wolf & Yves Smeers, 1997. "A Stochastic Version of a Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibrium Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 190-197, February.
    8. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
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