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Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models

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  • Hallin, M.
  • Akker, R. van den
  • Werker, B.J.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Abstract: This paper introduces rank-based tests for the cointegrating rank in an Error Correction Model with i.i.d. elliptical innovations. The tests are asymptotically distribution-free, and their validity does not depend on the actual distribution of the innovations. This result holds despite the fact that, depending on the alternatives considered, the model exhibits a non-standard Locally Asymptotically Brownian Functional (LABF) and Locally Asymptotically Mixed Normal (LAMN) local structure—a structure which we completely characterize. Our tests, which have the general form of Lagrange multiplier tests, depend on a reference density that can freely be chosen, and thus is not restricted to be Gaussian as in traditional quasi-likelihood procedures. Moreover, appropriate choices of the reference density are achieving the semiparametric efficiency bounds. Simulations show that our asymptotic analysis provides an accurate approximation to finite-sample behavior. Our results are based on an extension, of independent interest, of two abstract results on the convergence of statistical experiments and the asymptotic linearity of statistics to the context of, possibly non-stationary, time series.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2012-089.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2012089

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  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
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  4. H. Peter Boswijk & Michael Jansson & Morten �. Nielsen, 2012. "Improved Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration Rank in the VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-097/III, Tinbergen Institute.
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  6. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  8. Jeganathan, P., 1997. "On Asymptotic Inference in Linear Cointegrated Time Series Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 692-745, October.
  9. Marc Hallin & Ramon van den Akker & Bas Werker, 2009. "A class of Simple Semiparametrically Efficient Rank-Based Unit Root Tests," Working Papers ECARES 2009_001, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  11. Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
  12. H. Peter Boswijk & Michael Jansson & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2012. "Improved Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration Rank in the VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-097/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1997. "Adaptive estimation in time-series models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74145, Tilburg University.
  14. Hallin, Marc & Paindaveine, Davy, 2005. "Affine-invariant aligned rank tests for the multivariate general linear model with VARMA errors," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 122-163, March.
  15. Drost, F.C. & Akker, R. van den & Werker, B.J.M., 2009. "The asymptotic structure of nearly unstable non negative integer-valued AR(1) models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3106433, Tilburg University.
  16. Breitung, Jorg & Gourieroux, Christian, 1997. "Rank tests for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-27, November.
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  19. Hallin, M. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "Semiparametric efficiency, distribution-freeness and invariance," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-117062, Tilburg University.
  20. Marc Hallin & Davy Paindaveine & Thomas Verdebout, 2011. "Optimal Rank-Based Tests for Common Principal Components," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  21. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
  22. Jeganathan, P., 1995. "Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 818-887, October.
  23. Marc Hallin & Davy Paindaveine & Thomas Verdebout, 2009. "Optimal rank-based testing for principal component," Working Papers ECARES 2009_013, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  24. B. Nielsen, 2009. "Test for cointegration rank in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2009-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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  28. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
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