Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)

Contents:

Author Info

  • Eijffinger, S.C.W.
  • Mahieu, R.J.
  • Raes, L.B.D.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Abstract: Central banks in fluence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. By providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks affect financial markets' forecasts. In bad times monetary policy communication inducing an upward revision of the path of future policy is good news for stocks. During an expansion the effect is weak and on average negative. The response of equities to central bank talk depends critically on the business cycle. There are strong industry specific effects of monetary policy actions and communication. These industry effects relate to the variation in cyclicality of different industries. Firmspecific effects of monetary policy relate to the leverage, the size and the price-earnings ratio of firms.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=127749
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2012-012.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2012012

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; Federal Reserve Communication; Credit channel; Business cycle; Stock market;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Brand, Claus & Buncic, Daniel & Turunen, Jarkko, 2006. "The impact of ECB monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 0657, European Central Bank.
  2. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
  3. Hausman, Joshua & Wongswan, Jon, 2011. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 547-571, April.
  4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
  5. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
  6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  8. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  9. Willem Thorbecke, 1998. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9812009, EconWPA.
  10. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
  11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  12. Roy E. Welsch & Edwin Kuh, 1977. "Linear Regression Diagnostics," NBER Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06.
  14. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  15. Alan Blinder, 2009. "Talking about monetary policy: the virtues (and vice?) of central bank communication," BIS Working Papers 274, Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Jon Wongswan, 2005. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 844, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Laeven, Luc & Tong, Hui, 2010. "U.S. Monetary Shocks and Global Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 8090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
  19. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA.
  20. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  21. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Communication Matters: U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Volatility," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201105, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  22. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  23. Kurov, Alexander, 2010. "Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 139-149, January.
  24. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
  25. Ingo Fender & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Daily CDS pricing in emerging markets before and during the global financial crisis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201139, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  26. Hayo, Bernd & Uhlenbrock, Birgit, 1999. "Industry effects of monetary policy in Germany," ZEI Working Papers B 14-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  27. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
  28. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  29. Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  30. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
  31. Simon Kwan, 2007. "On forecasting future monetary policy: has forward-looking language mattered?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun15.
  32. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 0354, European Central Bank.
  33. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Enhancing Fed credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar17.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Alexandros Kontonikas & Ronald MacDonald & Aman Saggu, 2012. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: state dependence and the financial crisis," Working Papers 2012_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2012012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.