Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market
AbstractWe empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, we use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. We show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households that borrow on home equity lines of credit worsens along both observable and unobservable dimensions. This is an interesting example of a type of dynamic adverse selection that can worsen the risk characteristics of new lending, and suggests another avenue by which the precautionary demand for liquidity may affect borrowing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2011-086.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
Home equity loan; adverse selection; liquidity; consumption; housing finance;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-08-29 (Banking)
- NEP-URE-2011-08-29 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brueckner, Jan K, 2000. "Mortgage Default with Asymmetric Information," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 251-74, May.
- Astrid A. Dick & Andreas Lehnert, 2010.
"Personal Bankruptcy and Credit Market Competition,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 655-686, 04.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002.
"Do Liquidity Constraints And Interest Rates Matter For Consumer Behavior? Evidence From Credit Card Data,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185, February.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2009. "Comment on "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans" by Benjamin Keys, Tanmoy Mukherjee, Amit Seru, and Vikrant Vig," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 721-724, July.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001.
"An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency,"
NBER Working Papers
8409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
- David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-28, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
- Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2005.
"Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 123-135.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "Credit Lines and Credit Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.