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The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public’s Expectations Vary over Time and across Socio-Economic Groups

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Author Info

  • Bissonnette, L.
  • Soest, A.H.O. van

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of Dutch households concerning purchasing power of occupational pensions, eligibility and purchasing power of old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We investigate how these expectations have changed over time and how they vary with socio-economic characteristics. Exploiting the fact that we have data until September 2010, we also analyze the effect of the recent financial and economic crisis. We find significant differences in expectations of different socio-economic groups, mainly suggesting that groups who are probably better informed were also more pessimistic.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2011-065.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2011065

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Keywords: subjective probabilities; old age social security; occupational pensions;

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References

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  1. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2005. "The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 587-592, August.
  2. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
  3. de Grip, Andries & Lindeboom, Maarten & Montizaan, Raymond, 2009. "Shattered Dreams: The Effects of Changing the Pension System Late in the Game," IZA Discussion Papers 4034, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. van der Wiel, Karen, 2008. "Preparing for Policy Changes: Social Security Expectations and Pension Scheme Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 3623, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. van der Wiel, Karen, 2009. "Have You Heard the News? How Real-Life Expectations React to Publicity," IZA Discussion Papers 4064, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Grip Andries de & Lindeboom Maarten & Montizaan Raymond, 2009. "Dreams: The Effects of Changing the Pension System Late in the Game," Research Memorandum 043, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
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Cited by:
  1. Barrett, Alan & Mosca, Irene, 2012. "Announcing an Increase in the State Pension Age and the Recession: Which Mattered More for Expected Retirement Ages?," IZA Discussion Papers 6325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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