Bayesian Integration of Large Scale SNA Data Frameworks with an Application to Guatemala
AbstractWe present a Bayesian estimation method applied to an extended set of national accounts data and estimates of approximately 2500 variables. The method is based on conventional national accounts frameworks as compiled by countries in Central America, in particular Guatemala, and on concepts that are defined in the international standards of the System of National Accounts. Identities between the variables are exactly satisfied by the estimates. The method uses ratios between the variables as Bayesian conditions, and introduces prior reliabilities of values of basic data and ratios as criteria to adjust these values in order to satisfy the conditions. The paper not only presents estimates and precisions, but also discusses alternative conditions and reliabilities, in order to test the impact of framework assumptions and carry out sensitivity analyses. These tests involve, among others, the impact on Bayesian estimates of limited annual availability of data, of very low reliabilities (close to non-availability) of price indices, of limited availability of important administrative and survey data, and also the impact of aggregation of the basic data. We introduce the concept of `tentative' estimates that are close to conventional national accounts estimates, in order to establish a close link between the Bayesian estimation approach and conventional national accounting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2011-022.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
Macro accounts; system of national accounts; data frameworks; ratios; reliability; Bayesian estimation; sensitivity analysis; aggregation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- P44 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- José M. Rueda-Cantuche & Thijs Ten Raa, 2013. "Testing Assumptions Made In The Construction Of Input--Output Tables," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 170-189, March.
- Temel, Tugrul, 2011. "Estimation of a system of national accounts: implementation with mathematica," MPRA Paper 35446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.