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Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

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  • Cockx, B.
  • Picchio, M.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2010-95.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:201095

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Keywords: event history model; transition data; state dependence; short-lived jobs; stepping stone effect; long-lasting jobs;

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