The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
AbstractIn 2001, government guarantees for savings banks in Germany were removed following a law suit. We use this natural experiment to examine the effect of government guarantees on bank risk taking, using a large data set of matched bank/borrower information. The results suggest that banks whose government guarantee was removed reduced credit risk by cutting off the riskiest borrowers from credit. At the same time, the banks also increased interest rates on their remaining borrowers. The effects are economically large: the Z-Score of average borrowers increased by 7% and the average loan size declined by 13%. Remaining borrowers paid 57 basis points higher interest rates, despite their higher quality. Using a difference-in-differences approach we show that the effect is larger for banks that ex ante benefitted more from the guarantee. We show that both the credit quality of new customers improved (screening) and that the loans of existing riskier borrowers were less likely to be renewed (monitoring), after the removal of public guarantees. Public guarantees seem to be associated with substantial moral hazard effects.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2010-69S.
Date of creation: 2010
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banking; public guarantees; credit risk; moral hazard;
Other versions of this item:
- Gropp, Reint & Gruendl, Christian & Guettler, Andre, 2010. "The impact of public guarantees on bank risk taking: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 1272, European Central Bank.
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-08-21 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2010-08-21 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-CTA-2010-08-21 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-REG-2010-08-21 (Regulation)
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