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Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior

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Author Info
Dalen, H.P. van
Henkens, K. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

Do people follow up on their intentions? In this paper we confront the emigration intentions formed by inhabitants of the Netherlands during the year 2004-2005 and the emigration steps they took in the subsequent two years. Three results stand out. First, it appears that intentions are good predictors of future emigration: 24 percent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate have actually emigrated within two years time. Second, within the group of potential emigrants, those who have emigrated and those who have not yet emigrated, do not differ much from each other. The potential emigrants who have not yet emigrated are in poorer health. Third, the forces that trigger emigration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2008-60.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200860

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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  1. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lam, Kit-Chun, 2002. "Interaction between Economic and Political Factors in the Migration Decision," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 488-504, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "International Migration in the Long-Run: Positive Selection, Negative Selection and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Douglas S. Massey & Ilana Redstone Akresh, 2006. "Immigrant Intentions and Mobility in a Global Economy: The Attitudes and Behavior of Recently Arrived U.S. Immigrants," Social Science Quarterly, The Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(s1), pages 954-971. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2007. "Longing for the Good Life: Understanding Emigration from a High-Income Country," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 37-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kan, Kamhon, 1999. "Expected and Unexpected Residential Mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 72-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Katz, Eliakim & Stark, Oded, 1987. "International Migration under Asymmetric Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 718-26, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  9. Silke Uebelmesser, 2006. "To Go or Not to Go: Emigration from Germany," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7, pages 211-231, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Chiswick, Barry R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Douglas S. Massey & Ilana Redstone Akresh, 2006. "Immigrant Intentions and Mobility in a Global Economy: The Attitudes and Behavior of Recently Arrived U.S. Immigrants," Social Science Quarterly, The Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(5), pages 954-971. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gil S. Epstein & Ira N. Gang, 2006. "The Influence of Others on Migration Plans," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 652-665, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jan Fidrmuc & Peter Huber, 2007. "The willingness to migrate in the CEECs evidence from the Czech Republic," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 351-369, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Peter Sanfey & Harry Papapanagos, 2001. "Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 491-504. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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