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On Markov Chains with Uncertain Data


Author Info

  • Blanc, J.P.C.
  • Hertog, D. den

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)


In this paper, a general method is described to determine uncertainty intervals for performance measures of Markov chains given an uncertainty region for the parameters of the Markov chains. We investigate the effects of uncertainties in the transition probabilities on the limiting distributions, on the state probabilities after n steps, on mean sojourn times in transient states, and on absorption probabilities for absorbing states. We show that the uncertainty effects can be calculated by solving linear programming problems in the case of interval uncertainty for the transition probabilities, and by second order cone optimization in the case of ellipsoidal uncertainty. Many examples are given, especially Markovian queueing examples, to illustrate the theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2008-50.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200850

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Keywords: Markov chain; Interval uncertainty; Ellipsoidal uncertainty; Linear Programming; Second Order Cone Optimization;

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  1. Ke, Jau-Chuan & Huang, Hsin-I & Lin, Chuen-Horng, 2007. "On retrial queueing model with fuzzy parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(1), pages 272-280.
  2. Chen, Shih-Pin, 2004. "Parametric nonlinear programming for analyzing fuzzy queues with finite capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 429-438, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Gorissen, B.L. & Ben-Tal, A. & Blanc, J.P.C. & Hertog, D. den, 2012. "A New Method for Deriving Robust and Globalized Robust Solutions of Uncertain Linear Conic Optimization Problems Having General Convex Uncertainty Sets," Discussion Paper 2012-076, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.


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