Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Magnus, J.R.
  • Powell, O.R.
  • Prüfer, P.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Empirical growth research faces a high degree of model uncertainty. Apart from the neoclassical growth model, many new (endogenous) growth models have been proposed. This causes a lack of robustness of the parameter estimates and makes the determination of the key determinants of growth hazardous. The current paper deals with the fundamental issue of parameter estimation under model uncertainty, and compares the performance of various model averaging techniques. In particular, it contrasts Bayesian model averaging (BMA) — currently one of the standard methods used in growth empirics — with weighted-average least squares (WALS), a method that has not previously been applied in this context.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=75221
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2008-39.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200839

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: Model averaging; Bayesian analysis; Growth determinants;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Doppelhofer, G. & Cuaresma, J.C., 2007. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
  4. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999.
  6. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  7. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros KOURTELLOS & Chih Ming Tan, 2007. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0703, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  8. Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution with known variance," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 225-236, June.
  9. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _122, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  10. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  11. Durlauf,S.N. & Kourtellos,A. & Tan,C.M., 2005. "Empirics of growth and development," Working papers 16, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December.
  13. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  14. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  15. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  17. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  18. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  19. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Oliver Röhn, 2007. "Unraveling the Fortunates of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1907, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Theo Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2010. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," Working Papers UWEC-2007-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  21. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  22. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Jan R. Magnus & J. Durbin, 1999. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients of Interest When Other Regression Coefficients Are of No Interest," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 639-644, May.
  24. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
  25. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
  26. Dmitry Danilov, 2005. "Estimation of the mean of a univariate normal distribution when the variance is not known," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 277-291, December.
  27. Carlos Leite & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2002. "Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction," IMF Working Papers 02/118, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
  29. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  30. Hjort N.L. & Claeskens G., 2003. "Frequentist Model Average Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 879-899, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Patricia Prüfer & Gabriele Tondl, 2009. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_025, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. Valentino Dardanoni & Giuseppe De Luca & Salvatore Modica & Franco Peracchi, 2013. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalized Linear Models with Missing Covariates," EIEF Working Papers Series 1311, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2013.
  3. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2009. "Economic Freedom as a Driver for Growth in Transition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2010. "Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 469-479, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.