Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?
AbstractWe investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2007-75.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
monetary policy; low interest rates; financial stability; lending standards; credit risk; risk-taking; business cycle; bank organization; duration analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty-Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2007-10-06 (Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-10-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-10-06 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994.
"The financial accelerator and the flight to quality,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Ongena, Steven & Tümer-Alkan, Günseli & Westernhagen, Natalja v., 2012.
"Creditor concentration: An empirical investigation,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 830-847.
- Ongena, Steven & Tümer-Alkan, Günseli & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2007. "Creditor concentration: an empirical investigation," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Paola Sapienza, 2002. "The Effects of Banking Mergers on Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 329-367, 02.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission,"
NBER Working Papers
3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- João A. C. Santos & Luísa A. Farinha, 2000.
"Switching from single to multiple bank lending relationships: determinants and implications,"
BIS Working Papers
83, Bank for International Settlements.
- Farinha, Luisa A. & Santos, Joao A. C., 2002. "Switching from Single to Multiple Bank Lending Relationships: Determinants and Implications," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 124-151, April.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005.
"Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven & Yamashiro, Guy, 2004.
"Banks' Loan Portfolio and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April.
- Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006.
"Lending Booms and Lending Standards,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle: five views," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 18, May.
- Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena, 2010. ""Time for a Change": Loan Conditions and Bank Behavior when Firms Switch Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1847-1877, October.
- Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August.
- Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. " The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0414, Banco de Espa�a.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533.
- Cynthia G. McDonald & Linda M. Van De Gucht, 1999. "High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 409-419, August.
- Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2001. "The duration of bank relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 449-475, September.
- Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-81, July.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.