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The HIV Anticaptory Saving Motive: An Empirical Analysis in South Africa

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Author Info

  • Lammers, J.
  • Kuilen, G. van de

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on saving behaviour. Two important characteristics of HIV result in opposing forces on savings: mortality increases, which reduces savings, and long-term illness risk increases, which enhances savings. We use a two period life-cycle model with uncertain lifetime including perceived HIV contamination risk to illustrate both the opposing effects of the HIV epidemic on individual savings and test the predictions of our model with data obtained from an economic experiment with real monetary incentives performed in South Africa. The empirical results show that increased mortality decreases the amount of savings and that having a high perception of HIV contamination risk increases savings. The latter effect confirms the HIV anticipatory saving hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2007-51.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200751

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; saving behavior; illness risk; mortality; life-cycle model; time preferences;

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References

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  1. Glenn Harrison & John List, 2004. "Field experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00058, The Field Experiments Website.
  2. Robin Cubitt & Chris Starmer & Robert Sugden, 1998. "On the Validity of the Random Lottery Incentive System," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 115-131, September.
  3. Frikkie Booysens & Martine Visser, 2005. "Demand for health care in HIV/AIDS – affected households in two communities in the Free State province of South Africa," Working Papers 08, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  4. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Melonie B. Williams, 2002. "Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1606-1617, December.
  5. Harrell Chesson & Jami Leichliter & Gregory Zimet & Susan Rosenthal & David Bernstein & Kenneth Fife, 2006. "Discount rates and risky sexual behaviors among teenagers and young adults," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 217-230, May.
  6. Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1991. "Does the Random-Lottery Incentive System Elicit True Preferences? An Experimental Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 971-78, September.
  7. Maribeth Coller & Melonie Williams, 1999. "Eliciting Individual Discount Rates," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 107-127, December.
  8. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
  9. Kochar, Anjini, 2004. "Ill-health, savings and portfolio choices in developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 257-285, February.
  10. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  11. Judith Lammers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2007. "HIV/AIDS, Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Choice," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-098/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 31 Jan 2008.
  12. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2003. "The Long Run Economic Impact of AIDS," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 475, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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Cited by:
  1. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
  2. Judith Lammers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2007. "HIV/AIDS, Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Choice," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-098/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 31 Jan 2008.

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