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How changes in potential benefit duration affect equilibrium unemployment

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Author Info
Lalive, Rafael
Ours, Jan C. van
Zweimueller, Josef (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact of an increase in maximum bene.t duration on the steady-state unemployment rate. We draw on policy changes in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration from 30 to 52 weeks for individuals above age 50 and from 30 to 39 weeks for individuals between ages 40 and 49. We use these changes to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows and find that (i) the policy changes lead to an increase in the steady-state unemployment rate between 20 % and 50 %; (ii) surprisingly, most of the increase is due to an increase in the inflow into unemployment, whereas the decrease in the outflow from unemployment is modest; (iii) the effects are stronger for women than for men, but are otherwise rather robust across population subgroups.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 94.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200694

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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  4. Fredriksson, Peter & Holmlund, Bertil, 2003. "Improving incentives in unemployment insurance: A review of recent research," Working Paper Series 2003:5, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1996. "Benefit Duration and Unemployment Entry: Quasi-experimental Evidence for Austria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Card, David & Levine, Phillip B., 2000. "Extended benefits and the duration of UI spells: evidence from the New Jersey extended benefit program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 107-138, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rafael Lalive & Jan Van Ours & Josef Zweimüller, 2006. "How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 1009-1038, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Green, David A & Riddell, W Craig, 1997. "Qualifying for Unemployment Insurance: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 67-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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