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Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment

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Author Info
Gryglewicz, Sebastian
Huisman, K.J.M.
Kort, Peter M. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today.s economy .rms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a .nite life. The present paper studies investment projects with .nite project life, and we .nd that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens when uncertainty is limited and project life is short.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 124.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2006124

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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  4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Strategic investment under uncertainty and information spillovers," Discussion Paper 91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
  16. Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ni, Shawn X & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous Parameter Uncertainty and the Timing of Investment during Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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