Finite Project Life and Uncertainty Effects on Investment
AbstractThis paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment.Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual.However, in today.s economy .rms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a .nite life.The present paper studies investment projects with .nite project life, and we .nd that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty.It is shown that this particularly happens when uncertainty is limited and project life is short.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2006-124.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
investment; uncertainty; finite project length;
Other versions of this item:
- Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2007-01-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PPM-2007-01-23 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2004.
"Investment under uncertainty and policy change,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-148455, Tilburg University.
- Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985.
"Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions,"
NBER Working Papers
1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Jianjun Miao, 2003.
"Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics,"
- Steven Li, 2003. "A valuation model for firms with stochastic earnings," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 229-243.
- Decamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas, 2004. "Investment timing and learning externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 80-102, September.
- Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995.
"Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
- Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett, 1995. "Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February.
- Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
- Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty and Information Spillovers," Discussion Paper 2001-91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2005.
"Investment timing, agency, and information,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 493-533, March.
- Lee, Cheng F. & Wu, Chunchi & Wei, K. C. John, 1990. "The Heterogeneous Investment Horizon and the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Implications," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 361-376, September.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Robert S. Pindyck, 1992.
"Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution,"
NBER Working Papers
4160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wong, Kit Pong, 2007. "The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2152-2167, July.
- Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
- Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-62, September.
- Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005.
"Irreversible investment with regime shifts,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Jonathan Treussard & Doriana Ruffino, 2007.
"Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach,"
2007 Meeting Papers
77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Doriana Ruffino & Jonathan Treussard, 2006. "Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-044, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hong Bo & Robert Lensin, 2005. "Is the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship Nonlinear? An Empirical Analysis for the Netherlands," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(286), pages 307-331, 05.
- Dangl, Thomas & Wirl, Franz, 2004. "Investment under uncertainty: calculating the value function when the Bellman equation cannot be solved analytically," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1437-1460, April.
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Shibata, Takashi, 2009. "Investment timing, asymmetric information, and audit structure: A real options framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 903-921, April.
- Elmar Lukas & Andreas Welling, 2012. "On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Game Theoretic Real Option Approach," FEMM Working Papers 120030, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
- Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009.
"Heterogeneous Parameter Uncertainty and the Timing of Investment during Crisis,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2009-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous parameter uncertainty and the timing of investment during crisis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(41), pages 1-22.
- Markus Diller, 2012. "Tax-Optimal Step-Up and Imperfect Loss Offset," BuR - Business Research, German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 5(1), pages 8-23, May.
- Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
- Dandan Song & Zhaojun Yang, 2014. "Utility-Based Pricing, Timing and Hedging of an American Call Option Under an Incomplete Market with Partial Information," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 1-26, June.
- Djembissi, Bertrand, 2011. "Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1800-1816, October.
- Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2010. "Dynamic investment and capital structure under manager-shareholder conflict," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 158-178, February.
- Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2011. "Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 909-921, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.