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The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

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  • Heijdra, B.J.
  • Ligthart, J.E.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes.It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state.A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect.If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings.Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption.Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2004-90.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200490

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Keywords: fertility; labour supply; transition economy;

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References

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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
  3. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2004. "The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks," CCSO Working Papers 200403, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  4. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, . "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  5. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Ben J. Heijdra & Johanna Elisabeth Ligthart, 1998. "The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Working Papers 98/182, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
  8. Bovenberg, A.L., 1992. "Investment-promoting policies in open economies: The importance of intergenerational and international distributional effects," Discussion Paper 1992-20, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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  10. Momota, Akira & Futagami, Koichi, 2000. "Demographic transition pattern in a small country," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 231-237, May.
  11. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  12. Judd, Kenneth L., 1982. "An alternative to steady-state comparisons in perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 55-59.
  13. Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
  14. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  15. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
  18. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Heijdra, Ben J., 1998. "Environmental tax policy and intergenerational distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, January.
  19. Ben J. Heijdra & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2002. "Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 6.
  20. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
  2. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 349-370, June.
  3. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2012. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?," PGDA Working Papers 9112, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  4. Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 857-894, July.
  5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Fernando Perera-Tallo, 2012. "Optimal Retirement Age and Aging Population," 2012 Meeting Papers 728, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2009. "Keeping up with the ageing Joneses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-64, January.
  8. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Trade and productivity: The family connection redux," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 159, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  9. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590843, Tilburg University.
  10. Walter H. Fisher & Ben J. Heijdra, 2008. "Growth and the Ageing Joneses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2466, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2008. "Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 0863, European Central Bank.
  12. Frank Caliendo & Emin Gahramanov, 2013. "Myopia and pensions in general equilibrium," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 375-401, July.

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