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Granger Causality and the Sampling of Economic Processes

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  • McCrorie, J.R.
  • Chambers, M.J.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper provides a discussion of the developments in econometric modelling that are designed to deal with the problem of spurious Granger causality relationships that can arise from temporal aggregation.We outline the distortional e ects of using discrete time models that explicitly depend on the unit of time and outline a remedy of constructing timeinvariant discrete time models via a structural continuous time model.In an application to testing for money-income causality, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating exact temporal aggregation restrictions on the discrete time data.We do this by conducting causality tests in discrete time models that: (a) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions exactly; (b) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions approximately; and (c) do not impose these restrictions at all.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2004-39.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200439

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Keywords: sampling; aggregation; models;

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References

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1986. "Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Chambers, M.J. & McCrorie, J.R., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Exchange Rate Models with Unobservable Fundamentals," Discussion Paper 2004-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July.
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  7. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
  8. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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  10. Boudjellaba, B. & Dufour, J.-M. & Roy, R., 1991. "Testing Causality Between Two Vextors in Multivariate Arma Models," Cahiers de recherche 9119, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  16. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
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  26. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:2:p:215-56 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Enrique Sentana & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0714, CEMFI.
  2. Chih‐Nan Chen & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1507-1533, December.
  3. Marcus J. Chambers & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2006. "Identification And Estimation Of Exchange Rate Models With Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 573-582, 05.
  4. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
  5. Petrović, Ljiljana & Dimitrijević, Sladjana, 2012. "Causality with finite horizon of the past in continuous time," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1219-1223.
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:61:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Jewitt, Giles & Roderick McCrorie, J., 2005. "Computing estimates of continuous time macroeconometric models on the basis of discrete data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 397-416, April.
  8. Arie ten Cate, 2004. "Refinement of the partial adjustment model using continuous-time econometrics," CPB Discussion Paper 41, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. Ehlers, Stefan & Gürtler, Marc & Olboeter, Sven, 2010. "Financial crises and information transfer: An empirical analysis of the lead-lag relationship between equity and CDS iTraxx Indices," Working Papers IF34V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  10. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14.

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