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Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes

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Author Info
McCrorie, J.R.
Chambers, M.J. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper provides a discussion of the developments in econometric modelling that are designed to deal with the problem of spurious Granger causality relationships that can arise from temporal aggregation. We outline the distortional e ects of using discrete time models that explicitly depend on the unit of time and outline a remedy of constructing timeinvariant discrete time models via a structural continuous time model. In an application to testing for money-income causality, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating exact temporal aggregation restrictions on the discrete time data. We do this by conducting causality tests in discrete time models that: (a) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions exactly; (b) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions approximately; and (c) do not impose these restrictions at all.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 39.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200439

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C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1986. "Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 3.
  6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Granger, C.W.J. & Thomson, P. J., 1987. "Predictive Consequences of Using Conditioning or Causal Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 150-152, February. [Downloadable!]
  8. McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2000. "Deriving The Exact Discrete Analog Of A Continuous Time System," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 998-1015, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Fougere, Denis, 1996. "Noncausality in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1195-1212, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  12. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Comte, F. & Renault, E., 1996. "Noncausality in Continuous Time Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 215-256, June. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Renault, Eric & Sekkat, Khalid & Szafarz, Ariane, 1998. "Testing for spurious causality in exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-66, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wymer, C. R., 1992. "Gaussian estimation of a second order continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 313-351, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Chambers, M.J. & McCrorie, J.R., 2004. "Identification and estimation of exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals," Discussion Paper 38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:2:p:215-56 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Boudjellaba, B. & Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1991. "Testing Causality Between Two Vectors in Multivariate Arma Models," Cahiers de recherche 9119, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  22. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrique Sentana & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0714, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arie ten Cate, 2004. "Refinement of the partial adjustment model using continuous-time econometrics," CPB Discussion Papers 41, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chambers, M.J. & McCrorie, J.R., 2004. "Identification and estimation of exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals," Discussion Paper 38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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