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Identification and estimation of exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals

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Author Info
Chambers, M.J.
McCrorie, J.R. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper is concerned with issues of model specification, identification, and estimation in exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals. We show that the model estimated by Gardeazabal, Reg4ulez and V4azquez (International Economic Review, 1997) is not identified and demonstrate how to specify an identified model in-keeping with their intended approach. Estimates of the identified model are reported for five currencies over two time spans, and a restriction suggested by the asset market view of exchange rate determination is not rejected for any currency or time span. The forecasting performance of the model is also examined and is found to compare favourably with forecasts generated by a random walk with drift.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 38.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200438

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gardeazabal, Javier & Regulez, Marta & Vazquez, Jesus, 1997. "Testing the Canonical Model of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 389-404, May.
  9. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. McCrorie, J.R. & Chambers, M.J., 2004. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Discussion Paper 39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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