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Identification and Estimation of Exchange Rate Models with Unobservable Fundamentals

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  • Chambers, M.J.
  • McCrorie, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with issues of model specification, identification, and estimation in exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals.We show that the model estimated by Gardeazabal, Reg´ulez and V´azquez (International Economic Review, 1997) is not identified and demonstrate how to specify an identified model in-keeping with their intended approach.Estimates of the identified model are reported for five currencies over two time spans, and a restriction suggested by the asset market view of exchange rate determination is not rejected for any currency or time span.The forecasting performance of the model is also examined and is found to compare favourably with forecasts generated by a random walk with drift.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2004-38.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200438

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Keywords: exchange rate; aggregation; estimation; models;

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References

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  1. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  3. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May.
  4. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July.
  5. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model," Special Studies Papers 205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Gardeazabal, Javier & Regulez, Marta & Vazquez, Jesus, 1997. "Testing the Canonical Model of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 389-404, May.
  8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  9. McCrorie, J. Roderick & Chambers, Marcus J., 2006. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 311-336, June.
  10. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  12. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  14. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. McCrorie, J.R. & Chambers, M.J., 2004. "Granger Causality and the Sampling of Economic Processes," Discussion Paper 2004-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Jewitt, Giles & Roderick McCrorie, J., 2005. "Computing estimates of continuous time macroeconometric models on the basis of discrete data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 397-416, April.

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