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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Bellemare, C.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate.The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience.Because immigrants simultaneously face a migration and a work decision in each period, the economic assimilation rates commonly used to assess the performance of immigrants in the host economy are endogenously determined and estimated, a feature previously ignored in the literature.We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration.Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior.Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials.Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects.Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2004-29.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200429

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: migration; dynamic programming; immigration; emigration; life cycles; Germany;

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References

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  1. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1995. "Tackling the European Migration Problems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 45-62, Spring.
  2. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
  3. Thomas K. Bauer & Astrid Kunze, 2004. "The demand for high-skilled workers and immigration policy," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(1), pages 77-88.
  4. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "An Economic Analysis of Return Migration," Discussion Papers 96-02 ISSN 1350-6722, University College London, Department of Economics.
  5. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November.
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  8. Wei-Yin Hu, 2000. "Immigrant Earnings Assimilation: Estimates from Longitudinal Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 368-372, May.
  9. Dustmann, Christian, 2000. "Temporary Migration and Economic Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  12. Christian Dustmann & Arthur van Soest, 2001. "Language Fluency And Earnings: Estimation With Misclassified Language Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 663-674, November.
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  29. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration using Panel Attrition," Discussion Paper 2004-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  30. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy in Integrated National Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 170, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  31. repec:fth:prinin:445 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When? - Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," Discussion Papers 3, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
  2. Kahanec, Martin & Shields, Michael P., 2010. "The Working Hours of Immigrants in Germany: Temporary versus Permanent," IZA Discussion Papers 4735, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  4. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2010. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," CSEF Working Papers 246, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  5. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
  6. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

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