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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Bellemare, C.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate.The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience.Because immigrants simultaneously face a migration and a work decision in each period, the economic assimilation rates commonly used to assess the performance of immigrants in the host economy are endogenously determined and estimated, a feature previously ignored in the literature.We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration.Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior.Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials.Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects.Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2004-29.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200429

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: migration; dynamic programming; immigration; emigration; life cycles; Germany;

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References

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  1. Darren Lubotsky, 2000. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Labor and Demography 0004006, EconWPA.
  2. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  3. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
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  7. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration using Panel Attrition," Discussion Paper 2004-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
  9. Bauer, Thomas K. & Kunze, Astrid, 2004. "The Demand for High-Skilled Workers and Immigration Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 999, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants’ Earnings Profiles," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2014002, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
  4. Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When?: Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 490, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  5. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777 - 810.
  6. Kahanec, Martin & Shields, Michael P., 2010. "The Working Hours of Immigrants in Germany: Temporary versus Permanent," IZA Discussion Papers 4735, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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