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Local sensitivity and diagnostic tests

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Author Info
Magnus, J.R.
Vasnev, A.L. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

In this paper we confront sensitivity analysis with diagnostic testing. Every model is misspecified, but a model is useful if the parameters of interest (the focus) are not sensitive to small perturbations in the underlying assumptions. The study of the e ect of these violations on the focus is called sensitivity analysis. Diagnostic testing, on the other hand, attempts to find out whether a nuisance parameter is large or small. Both aspects are important, but traditional applied econometrics tends to use only diagnostics and forget about sensitivity analysis. We develop a theory of sensitivity in a maximum likelihood framework, propose a sensitivity test, give conditions under which the diagnostic and sensitivity tests are asymptotically independent, and demonstrate with three core examples that this independence is the rule rather than the exception, thus underlying the importance of sensitivity analysis.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 105.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2004105

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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  1. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1998. "Hypothesis testing with a restricted parameter space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 2000. "On the sensitivity of the usual t- and F-tests to covariance misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 157-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 1999. "The sensitivity of OLS when the variance matrix is (partially) unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 295-323, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Karim M. Abadir & Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Notation in econometrics: a proposal for a standard," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 76-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Magnus, Jan R., 1978. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the GLS model with unknown parameters in the disturbance covariance matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shi, Lei & Wang, Xueren, 1999. "Local influence in ridge regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-353, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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