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Risk aversion, price uncertainty, and irreversible investments

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Author Info
Goorbergh, R.W.J. van den
Huisman, K.J.M.
Kort, P.M. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of com-plete markets. Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets. Within a general setting, we prove the existence of a unique critical output price that distinguishes price regions in which it is optimal for a risk averse investor to invest and price regions in which one should refrain from investing. We use a class of utility functions that exhibit non-increasing absolute risk aversion to examine the e ects of risk aversion, price uncertainty, and other parameters on the optimal investment decision. We nd that risk aversion reduces investment, particularly if the investment size is large. Moreover, we nd that a rise in price uncertainty increases the value of deferring irreversible investments. This e ect is stronger for high levels of risk aversion. In addition, we provide, for the rst time, closed-form comparative statics formulas for the risk neutral investor.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 119.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2003119

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Wang, Honglin & Reardon, Thomas, 2008. "Social Learning and Parameter Uncertainty in Irreversible Investment----Evidence from Greenhouse Adoption in Northern China," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6310, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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