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Semiparametric Duration Models

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  • Drost, F.C.
  • Werker, B.J.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

In this article we consider semiparametric duration models and efficient estimation of the parameters in a non-iid environment. In contrast to classical time series models where innovations are assumed to be iid we show that in, for example, the often-used autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, the assumption of independent innovations is too restrictive to describe financial durations accurately. Therefore, we consider semiparametric extensions of the standard specification that allow for arbitrary kinds of dependencies between the innovations. The exact nonparametric specification of these dependencies determines the flexibility of the semiparametric model. We calculate semiparametric efficiency bounds for the ACD parameters, discuss the construction of efficient estimators, and study the efficiency loss of the exponential pseudolikelihood procedure. This efficiency loss proves to be sizeable in applications. For durations observed on the Paris Bourse for the Alcatel stock in July and August 1996, the proposed semiparametric procedures clearly outperform pseudolikelihood procedures. We analyze these efficiency gains using a simulation study confirming that, at least at the Paris Bourse, dependencies among rescaled durations can be exploited.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2001-11.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200111

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: adaptiveness; durations; one-step improvement; semiparametric efficiency;

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References

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  1. Eric Ghysels & Christian Gourieroux & Joanna Jasiak, 1997. "Stochastic Volatility Duration Models," Working Papers 97-46, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  2. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  3. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November.
  4. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 99-135, April-Jun.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521496032 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
  7. Oliver Linton, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1054, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1992. "Adaptive estimation in time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 251-275.
  9. Gonzalez-Rivera, G., 1995. "A Note on Adaptation in Garch Models," The A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management 95-1, The A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management. University of California Riverside.
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:4:p:539-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Christian Gourieroux & Joanna Jasiak, 1998. "Nonlinear Autocorrelograms : An Application to Intra-Trade Durations," Working Papers 98-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  12. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  13. Kreiss Jens-Peter, 1987. "On Adaptive Estimation In Autoregressive Models When There Are Nuisance Functions," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1-2), pages 59-76, February.
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