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New Economy - New Policy Rules?

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Author Info

  • Bullard, J.
  • Schaling, E.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard economy in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. We augment this model with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. We find that in the altered environment, a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor rule. We use this result to comment on the "new economy" events of the 1990s and the "stagflation" events of the 1970s from the perspective of our model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 2000-72.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200072

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: inflation targets; strutural change; monetary policy rules; new economy; regime switching;

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References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-058-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  2. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
  3. Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: The response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1527-1567.
  4. Jan Marc Berk, 2003. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(1), pages 1-35, 02.
  5. Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 2004-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Schaling, E., 2003. "Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2003-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
  8. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.
  9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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