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Effects of strategic interactions on the option value of waiting

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Author Info
Huisman, K.J.M.
Kort, P.M. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper considers an investment timing problem in a duopoly framework. The results of the seminal contribution by Fudenberg en Tirole (1985, RES) are extended by introduction of uncertainty. Three scenarios are identified. In the first scenario we have a preemption equilibrium with dispersed investment timing, while in the second scenario an equilibrium with joint investment prevails. In the third scenario preemption holds in case uncertainty is low, and joint investment is the Pareto dominating equilibrium if uncertainty is large. From the theory of real options it is known that it is optimal to invest when the net present value exceeds the option value of waiting. In this paper we modify the real options investment rule by taking into account strategic interactions. Now the net present value must be compared with the so-called strategic option value of waiting. It can be shown that, compared to the option value of waiting in the monopoly case, the strategic option value of waiting is the same in the joint investment case and lower in the preemption equilibrium. In the latter case it can even occur that investing is optimal, while the net present value is negative.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 92.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199992

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "A Multistage Duel in Continuous Time," Economics Working Papers 8757, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "Basic Timing Games," Economics Working Papers 8745, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Weeds, Helen, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 729-47, July.
    Other versions:
  7. Dutta, Prajit K & Lach, Saul & Rustichini, Aldo, 1995. "Better Late Than Early: Vertical Differentiation in the Adoption of a New Technology," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 563-89, Winter.
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michele Moretto, 2007. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0058, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  2. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michele Moretto, 2003. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2003.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  4. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements : a real options approach," Discussion Paper 52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretical real option models," Discussion Paper 81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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