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Effects of Strategic Interactions on the Option Value of Waiting

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  • Huisman, K.J.M.
  • Kort, P.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper considers an investment timing problem in a duopoly framework. The results of the seminal contribution by Fudenberg en Tirole (1985, RES) are extended by introduction of uncertainty. Three scenarios are identified. In the first scenario we have a preemption equilibrium with dispersed investment timing, while in the second scenario an equilibrium with joint investment prevails. In the third scenario preemption holds in case uncertainty is low, and joint investment is the Pareto dominating equilibrium if uncertainty is large. From the theory of real options it is known that it is optimal to invest when the net present value exceeds the option value of waiting. In this paper we modify the real options investment rule by taking into account strategic interactions. Now the net present value must be compared with the so-called strategic option value of waiting. It can be shown that, compared to the option value of waiting in the monopoly case, the strategic option value of waiting is the same in the joint investment case and lower in the preemption equilibrium. In the latter case it can even occur that investing is optimal, while the net present value is negative.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1999-92.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199992

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Related research

Keywords: Investment; timing game; real options;

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References

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  1. Simon, Leo K., 1987. "A Multistage Duel in Continuous Time," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7186g3c4, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July.
  3. Simon, Leo K., 1987. "Basic Timing Games," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8kt5h29p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Weeds, H., 2000. "Strategic Delay in a Real Optimna Model of R&D Competition," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 576, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Prajit K. Dutta & Saul Lach & Aldo Rustichini, 1993. "Better Late Than Early: Vertical Differentiation in the Adoption of a New Technology," NBER Working Papers 4473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "A Multistage Duel in Continuous Time," Economics Working Papers 8757, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
  8. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  9. Leo K. Simon., 1987. "Basic Timing Games," Economics Working Papers 8745, University of California at Berkeley.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Makoto Goto & Katsumasa Nishide & Ryuta Takashima, 2013. "Irreversible Investment under Competition with a Markov Switching Regime," KIER Working Papers 861, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Etienne Billette de Villemeur & Richard Ruble & Bruno Versaevel, 2011. "Coordination and Cooperation in Investment Timing with Externalities?," Working Papers 1128, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  3. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
  4. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
  5. Michele Moretto, 2007. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0058, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  6. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Strategic Capital Budgeting: Asset Replacement Under Uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2001-4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric Equilibrium Strategies in Game Theoretical Real Option Models," Discussion Paper 2002-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Takashima, Ryuta & Goto, Makoto & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2008. "Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1809-1830, July.
  9. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
  10. Wallace, Rodney B., 2003. "Environments that facilitate collusive non-investment:: Theory and application to Japan's period of rapid development," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 213-225, June.
  11. de Villemeur, Etienne Billette & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2013. "Caveat preemptor: Coordination failure and success in a duopoly investment game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 250-254.
  12. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "Duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 643-656.
  13. Takahiro Watanabe, 2012. "Real Options and Signaling in Strategic Investment Games," KIER Working Papers 809, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.

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