Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment
AbstractIn this paper we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calender time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1999-65.
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
unemployment incidence; unemployment duration; unemployment compositon; business cycles; sorting; ranking;
Other versions of this item:
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 2001. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 436-48, October.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-050/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1997. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-09-09 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993.
"Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985.
"Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darby, Michael R & Haltiwanger, John C & Plant, Mark W, 1985. "Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 614-37, September.
- Michael R. Darby & John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under RAtional Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 339, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994.
"Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, O.J. & Diamond, P., 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, And Wages," Working papers 546, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991.
"Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence,"
NBER Working Papers
3664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baker, Michael, 1992. "Digit preference in CPS unemployment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-121, May.
- Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
- Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
- Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.