Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure

Contents:

Author Info

  • Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper proposes to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks by a new \agnostic" method, imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of prices, nonborrowed reserves and the federal funds rate in response to a monetary policy shock. No restrictions are imposed on the response of real GDP to answer the key question in the title. We find that "contractionary" monetary policy shocks have an ambiguous effect on real GDP. Otherwise, the results found in the empirical VAR literature so far are largely confirmed. The results could be paraphrased as a new Keynesian-new classical synthesis: even though the general price level is sticky for a period of about a year, money may well be close to neutral. We provide a counterfactual analysis of the early 80's, setting the monetary policy shocks to zero after December 1979, and recalculating the data. We found that the differences between observed real GDP and counterfactually calculated real GDP was not very large. Thus, the label "Volcker-recession" for the two recessions in the early 80's appears to be misplaced.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=3868
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1999-28.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199928

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: vector autoregression; monetary policy shocks; identification; monetary neutrality;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-53, May.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Favero, Carlo A, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: An Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Rotemberg, Julio J., 1994. "Shocks: A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 365-371, December.
  6. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  8. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Modeling Money," NBER Working Papers 6371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November.
  12. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
  13. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
  17. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  20. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Common and uncommon trends and cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 624-635, April.
  21. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
  24. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
  25. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  26. Uhlig, Harald, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 245-263, December.
  27. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
  28. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  29. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:645-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  33. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  34. Canova, Fabio & Pina, Joaquim Pivis, 1999. "Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  37. Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
  38. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," Working Paper 91-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  40. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 6608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  42. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
  45. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  46. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  47. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  48. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
  49. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
  50. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  51. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Identification and the effects of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  52. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  54. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  55. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
  56. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
  57. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  58. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  59. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1996. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper 1996-09, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.