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Rumours and markets

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Author Info
Kosfeld, M. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of rumours on markets. We consider a large population of agents who participate in a two-good exchange economy. Agents communicate with their local neighbors which gives rise to the possible spread of a rumour within the population. Since the rumour may affect preferences, the evolution of the rumour has a direct impact on economic variables, such as market demand and market equilibrium prices. If the rumour dies out (long-run) equilibrium prices correspond to fundamental values, while prices differ from fundamentals if the rumour stays present. When rumour effects are strong the market crashes, in the sense that trade breaks down as the ratio of relative prices converges to zero.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 23.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199823

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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  1. Durlauf, Steven N, 1993. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 349-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pound, John & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1990. "Clearly Heard on the Street: The Effect of Takeover Rumors on Stock Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 291-308, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hildenbrand, Werner, 1971. "Random preferences and equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 414-429, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1995. "Word-of-Mouth Communication and Social Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 93-125, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Zivney, Terry L. & Bertin, William J. & Torabzadeh, Khalil M., 1996. "Overreaction to takeover speculation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1993. "The Economics of Rumours," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 309-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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