Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Skill, Strategy and Passion: An Empirical Analysis of Soccer

Contents:

Author Info

  • Palomino, F.A.
  • Rigotti, L.
  • Rustichini, A.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Sports provide a natural experiment on individual choices in games with high stakes. We study soccer with a game-theoretic model of a match, and then evaluate the ability of this model to explain actual behavior with data from 2885 matches among professional teams. In our model, the strategy of a team depends on the current state of the game. When the game is tied, both teams attack. A losing team always attacks, while its winning opponent attacks early in the game, but it starts defending as the end of the match nears. We find that teams' skills, current score, and home field advantage are significant explanatory variables of the probability of scoring. We also find that a team which falls behind is relatively more likely to score. A team which is ahead, on the other hand, uses a conservative strategy very early in the match. These results support the main conclusions of our model. They indicate that soccer teams behave consistently with rationality and equilibrium. However, there is significant evidence that emotional factors are roughly as important as rational ones in determining the game's outcome, and they affect the strategic decisions of teams.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=3806
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1998-129.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:1998129

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords: zero sum games; motivation; rationality; natural experiments; sports; soccer;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion: An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Discussion Paper 1998-129, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Sahi, S. & Shubik, M., 1988. "A model of a sudden-death field-goal football game as a sequential duel," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 205-215, June.
  3. Stefan Szymanski & Ron Smith, 1997. "The English Football Industry: profit, performance and industrial structure," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 135-153.
  4. Brown, James N & Rosenthal, Robert W, 1990. "Testing the Minimax Hypothesis: A Re-examination of O'Neill's Game Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1065-81, September.
  5. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 1998. "On the Independence and Identical Distribution of Points in Tennis," Discussion Paper 1998-53, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kirchsteiger, Georg & Rigotti, Luca & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001. "Your Morals Are Your Moods," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fh525g8, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Frederic Palomino & Luca Rigotti & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Skill, Strategy, and Passion: an Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1822, Econometric Society.
  3. Anurag N. Banerjee & Johan F.M. Swinnen & Alfons Weersink, 2006. "Skating on Thin Ice: Rule Changes and Team Strategies in the NHL," LICOS Discussion Papers 17506, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  4. Carrillo, Juan D, 2006. "Penalty Shoot-Outs: Before or After Extra Time?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Banerjee, A.N. & Swinnen, J.F.M., 2002. "Does a sudden death liven up the game? Rules, incentives, and strategy in football," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0214, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  6. Franz Wirl & Simon Sagmeister, 2008. "Changing of the guards: New coaches in Austria’s premier football league," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 267-278, July.
  7. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Vanbrabant, P., 2000. "Share Price Reactions to Sporty Performances of Soccer Clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange and the AIM," Discussion Paper 2000-19, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D, 2002. "Do the 'Three-Point Victory' and 'Golden Goal' Rules Make Soccer More Exciting? A Theoretical Analysis of a Simple Game," CEPR Discussion Papers 3266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:1998129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.