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On the dangers of modelling through continuous distributions : a Bayesian perspective

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Author Info
Fernandez, C.
Steel, M.F.J. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

We point out that Bayesian inference on the basis of a given sample is not always possible with continuous sampling models, even under a proper prior. The reason for this paradoxical situation is explained, and its empirical relevance is linked to coarse gathering of data, such as rounding. A solution, inspired by the way observations are recorded, is proposed. Use of a Gibbs sampler makes the solution practically feasible. The case of independent sampling from (possibly skewed) scale mixtures of Normals is analysed in de- tail for a location-scale model with a commonly used noninformative prior. For Student-t sampling with unrestricted degrees of freedom the usual" inference, based on point obser- vations, is shown to be precluded whenever the sample contains repeated observations. We show that Bayesian inference based on set observations, however, is possible and illustrate this by an application to a skewed data set of stock returns.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 5.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:19975

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-65, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter Rossi, . "Stochastic Volatility: Univariate and Multivariate Extensions," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  4. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M., 1996. "On Bayesian inference under sampling from scale mixtures of normals," Discussion Paper 2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S19-40, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1995. "reference Priors in Non-Normal Location Problems," Papers 9591, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  7. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1996. "On Bayesian modelling of fat tails and skewness," Discussion Paper 58, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1997. "Multivariate student-T regression models : pitfalls and inference," Discussion Paper 8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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