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Comparing Predictions and Outcomes: Theory and Application to Income Changes

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  • Das, J.W.M.
  • Dominitz, J.
  • Soest, A.H.O. van

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, predictions may be compared with realized outcomes. The categorical nature of the predictions data, however, complicates this comparison. Generalizing previous findings on binary intentions data, we derive bounds on features of the empirical distribution of realized outcomes under the "best-case" hypothesis that respondents have rational expectations and that reported expectations are best predictions of future outcomes. These bounds are shown to depend on the assumed model of how respondents form their "best prediction" when forced to choose among (ordered) categories. An application to data on income change expectations and realized income changes illustrates how alternative response models may be used to test the best-case hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1997-45.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199745

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Related research

Keywords: predictions; categorical data; loss function; income growth;

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References

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  1. James Tobin, 1957. "On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 41, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Kapteyn, A.J. & Kooreman, P. & Willemse, R.J., 1988. "Some methodological issues in the implementation of subjective poverty definitions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-364358, Tilburg University.
  3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  4. repec:att:wimass:9217 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1996. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121740, Tilburg University.
  6. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-72, March.
  7. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
  8. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1995. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  10. Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  11. Leonard, Jonathan S, 1982. "Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 157-61, February.
  12. William Gould, 1993. "Quantile regression with bootstrapped standard errors," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(9).
  13. Das, Marcel & Donkers, Bas, 1999. "How Certain Are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(3), pages 325-38, September.
  14. Ilmakunnas, Seija & Pudney, Stephen, 1990. "A model of female labour supply in the presence of hours restrictions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 183-210, March.
  15. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
  17. repec:att:wimass:8905 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  19. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  2. Frijters, Paul & Haisken-DeNew, John P. & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," Macroeconomics 0512002, EconWPA.
  5. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
  6. Ramos, Xavi & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Hoderlein, Stefan & Winter, Joachim, 2010. "Structural measurement errors in nonseparable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 432-440, August.
  8. Hyslop, Dean R & Imbens, Guido W, 2001. "Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 475-81, October.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jürgen Arns & Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2005. "Modelling Aggregate Consumption Growth with Time-Varying Parameters," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse15_2005, University of Bonn, Germany.
  11. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2006. "Testing consumers' asymmetric reaction to wealth changes," CPB Discussion Paper 53, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  12. Paul Frijters & John P. Haisken-DeNew & Michael Shields, 2003. "How Well Do Individuals Predict Their Future Life Satisfaction? Rationality and Learning Following a Nationwide Exogenous Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 468, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  13. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
  14. Yu, Ge, 2003. "Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data," MPRA Paper 502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  15. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 2000. "Expected Versus Realized Income Changes: A Test of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis," Discussion Paper 2000-105, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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