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How Certain are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis

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  • Das, J.W.M.
  • Donkers, A.C.D.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

The growing literature on precautionary saving clearly indicates the need for measurement of income uncertainty. In this paper we empirically analyze subjective income uncertainty in the Netherlands. Data come from the Dutch VSB panel. We measure income uncertainty directly by asking questions on expected household income in the next twelve months. First, we describe our data and compare a measure of income uncertainty with corresponding studies conducted in the US and Italy. Second, we investigate the relationship between the measure of income uncertainty and some household characteristics. Controlling for information on expected changes, we find strong relationships between labor-market characteristics and the subjective income uncertainty as reported by the heads of households.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1997-38.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199738

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Related research

Keywords: subjective information; income expectations; income uncertainty;

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  1. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1995. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1996. "A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "How does future income affect current consumption?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  7. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May.
  8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  9. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  10. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-72, March.
  11. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
  12. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  13. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Agar Brugiavini, 1995. "Income uncertainty and consumption growth in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  14. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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