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Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility

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Author Info
Uhlig, H. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to a vector autoregression with stochastic volatility, where the multiplicative evolution of the precision matrix is driven by a multivariate beta variate. Exact updating formulas are given to the nonlinear filtering of the precision matrix. Estimation of the autoregressive parameters requires numerical methods: an importance-sampling based approach is explained here.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 9.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:19969

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Keywords: Vector Autoregressions;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:645-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Local scale models : State space alternative to integrated GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 181-202. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
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  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2009. "Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Abel Rodriguez & Enrique ter Horst, 2008. "Measuring expectations in options markets: An application to the SP500 index," Quantitative Finance Papers 0901.0033, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  5. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with Bayesian dynamic linear models," Quantitative Finance Papers 0802.0214, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups - results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Marek Jarociński, 2008. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe - a comparison," Working Paper Series 970, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Charles S. Bos & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Inference for Adaptive Time Series Models: Stochastic Volatility and Conditionally Gaussian State Space Form," Economics Papers 2004-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F.Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  11. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  12. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility using state space models," Quantitative Finance Papers 0802.0223, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mark E. Glickman, 2001. "Dynamic paired comparison models with stochastic variances," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 673-689, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, friction, or monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2009-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2000. "A Gibbs simulator for restricted VAR models," Working Paper 2000-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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