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Testing for spanning with futures contracts and nontraded assets : a general approach

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Author Info
Roon, F.A. de
Nijman, T.E.
Werker, B.J.M. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper generalizes the notion of mean-variance spanning as de- ned in the seminal paper of Huberman & Kandel (1987) in three di- mensions. It is shown how regression techniques can be used to test for spanning for more general classes of utility functions, in case some as- sets are nontraded, and in case some of the assets are zero-investment securities such as futures contracts. We then implement these tech- niques to test whether a basic set of three international stock indices, the S&P 500, the FAZ (Germany), and the FTSE (UK), span a set of commodity and currency futures contracts. Depending on whether mean-variance, logarithmic, or power utility functions are considered, the hypothesis of spanning can be rejected for most futures contracts considered. If an investor has a position in a nontraded commodity, then the hypothesis of spanning can almost always be rejected for fu- tures contracts on that commodity for all utility functions considered. For currency futures this is only the case for a power utility function that re ects a preference for skewness. Finally, if we explicitly take into account net futures positions of large traders that are known to have predictive power for futures returns, the hypothesis of spanning can be rejected for most futures contracts.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 83.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199683

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Keywords: futures;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel, 1987. " Mean-Variance Spanning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 873-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bekaert, Geert & Urias, Michael S, 1996. " Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 835-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1996. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 511-55. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ferson, Wayne E & Foerster, Stephen R & Keim, Donald B, 1993. " General Tests of Latent Variable Models and Mean-Variance Spanning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 131-56, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chang, Eric C, 1985. " Returns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 193-208, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Schmitz, Andrew, 1983. "Efficient Asset Portfolios and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 319-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. " Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Glosten, L. R. & Jagannathan, R., 1994. "A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-160, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, . "Portfolio Performance Evaluation: Old Issues and New Insights," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  13. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005. "Asset-pricing models and economic risk premia: a decomposition," Working Paper 2005-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Spanning Tests In Return And Stochastic Discount Factor Mean-Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0410, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
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