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Nonparametric nonlinear cotrending analysis, with an application to interest and inflation in the U.S

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Author Info
Bierens, H.J. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

Given the assumption that the components of a vector time series are stationary about nonlinear deterministic time trends, nonlinear co-trending is the phenomenon that one or more linear combinations of the time series are stationary about a linear trend, hence the series have common nonlinear deterministic time trends. In this paper we shall develop nonparametric tests for nonlinear co-trending. The tests are based on generalized eigenvalues, where the two matrices involved are constructed nonparametrically on the basis of partial sums. We apply this approach to the federal funds rate and the CPI inflation rate in the U.S., using monthly data. It appears that these series are nonlinearly co-trended, where the nonlinear trend in the inflation rate is positively related to the nonlinear trend in the interest rate. This positive relation between interest and inflation is known in the literature as the price puzzle. Thus, our result suggests that the price puzzle is due to a common nonlinear time trend in the series involved.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 62.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199662

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bierens, Herman J., 1993. "Higher-order sample autocorrelations and the unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 137-160. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. Søren Johansen, 1994. "The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 205-229. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Herman J. Bierens & Werner Ploberger, 1997. "Asymptotic Theory of Integrated Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1129-1152, September.
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  14. Herman Bierens & Shingyi Guo, 1993. "Testing stationarity and trend stationarity against the unit root hypothesis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricciuti, Roberto, 2007. "The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861-1998," P.O.L.I.S. department's Working Papers 86, Department of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 32, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Comovements in volatility in the euro money market," Working Paper Series 703, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Ricciuti, 2004. "Nonlinearity in testing for fiscal sustainability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. HOLMES, Mark J, 2008. "Non-Linear Trend Stationarity And Co-Trending In Latin American Real Exchange Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 107-118. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Business Cycle Comovement in the G-7: Common Shocks or Common Transmission Mechanisms?," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 40, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gourieroux, Christian & Josiak, Joann, 1999. "Nonlinear persistence and copersistence," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9920, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Roberto Ricciuti, 2004. "Punishment and Counter-punishment in Public Goods Games: Can we still govern ourselves?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/06, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  10. Maghyereh, A. & Al-Zoubi, H., 2006. "Does Fisher Effect Apply in Developing Countries: Evidence From a Nonlinear Cotrending Test applied to Argentina, Brazil, Malysia, Mexico, Korea and Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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