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Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

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Canton, E. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of cyclical volatility on endogenous growth: does growth increase or decrease with increased cyclical volatility? We construct a stochastic two-sector model of endogenous growth to analyze this question in detail. We will show that economic growth is higher in the presence of business cycles, since people devote more time to learning activities in an uncertain economic environment. Human capital is a hedge against future income uncertainty. Hence, the rate of economic growth will be higher in a stochastic environment. Based on a calibration of the model, we find that economic growth increases by 0.16%-point as a result of observed business cycle variability. When account is taken of the interaction between the model s general equilibrium and the cycle, welfare gains (measured in units of a permanent percentage increase in consumption) from eliminating business cycle volatility are about 0.12%.

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Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 116.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:1996116

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bovenberg, A Lans & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5949, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. " Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," CDMA Working Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marco Maffezzoli, 2000. "Human Capital and International Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 137-165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Theodore Palivos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2009. "Education and Growth: A Simple Model with Complicated Dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 2009_08, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  5. D Varvarigos, 2004. "Non-neutrality and Uncertainty in a Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 41, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Elena Andreou & Marianne Sensier & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth?," Working Paper Series 37-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stefania Villa, 2005. "Determinants of growth in Italy. A time series analysis," Quaderni DSEMS 24-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," Working Papers 2006/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "On the Effect of Monetary Stabilisation Policy on Long-run Growth (Revised September 2005)," Economics Discussion Papers 587, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 12, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  13. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 74, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  14. Canton, E., 1997. "Fiscal policy in a stochastic model of endogenous growth," Discussion Paper 63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  15. K C Neanidis & D Varvarigos, 2005. "The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth: Volatility of Disbursements and Distribution of Receipts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 56, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  16. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2006. "On stabilisation policy: Are there conflicting implications for growth and welfare?," Discussion Paper Series 2006_19, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  17. Giovanni Lombardo & Alan Sutherland, 2005. " Computing Second-Order-Accurate Solutions for Rational Expectation Models Using Linear Solution Methods," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0504, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Environmental Quality, Life Expectancy, and Sustainable Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
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