Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange

Contents:

Author Info

  • Berglund, T.
  • Kabir, R.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper analyzes systematic deviations of the observed futures price from the value predicted by the simple cost-of-carry relationship. A model to explain this deviation (the basis) is presented in Chen, Cuny, and Haugen (1995, henceforth CCH). According to CCH, the basis should be negatively related to the return volatility of the underlying instrument. CCH themselves find support for their model on data for S&P 500 contracts in the USA. However, since the data used by CCH in testing their model at least to some extent was familiar to them when developing the model, there is a need for a test on data that is completely independent of their data. The purpose of our study is to report the results of such a test. The data is for stock index futures on the European Options Exchange in Amsterdam. The period covered is 1991 through 1993. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the CCH model. An increase in perceived volatility of the underlying index will cause a drop in the basis, as well as an increase in the open interest on the futures market.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=3188
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Richard Broekman)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1995-83.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199583

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  2. Hemler, Michael L. & Longstaff, Francis A., 1991. "General Equilibrium Stock Index Futures Prices: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 287-308, September.
  3. Chen, Nai-Fu & Cuny, Charles J & Haugen, Robert A, 1995. " Stock Volatility and the Levels of the Basis and Open Interest in Future Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 281-300, March.
  4. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-84.
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  6. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-45, December.
  7. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
  8. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
  9. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November.
  10. Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
  11. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.