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Supervision and Performance : The Case of World Bank Projects

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  • Kilby, C.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper explores empirical aspects of the relation between supervision and project performance. I focus on development projects funded by the World Bank and on supervision done by the World Bank. The World Bank is the preeminent international development organization both in terms of money lent and leadership; furthermore, data measuring project performance and supervision are relatively comprehensive. The link between supervision and performance is of theoretical interest because it illuminates one side of World Bank-borrower interaction and of practical interest because supervision is an instrument controlled by the World Bank which may improve project performance. Data are from 1426 World Bank-funded projects completed between 1981 and 1991. Analysis of the influence of World Bank supervision on project performance uses annual supervision and annual interim performance ratings. The annual updating process which generates the discrete interim ratings is described by an ordered probit likelihood function. Maximum likelihood estimates indicate a positive impact of early supervision on performance; late supervision has significantly less influence. The estimation predicts that a significant and persistent increase in the level of supervision may lead to a gain of several percentage points in the economic rate of return. Because of the size of World Bank-funded projects, the potential gains from increasing supervision far outweigh the costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1995-45.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:199545

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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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  1. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault E & Trognon A, 1985. "Simulated residuals," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8502, CEPREMAP.
  2. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn & Basu, Swati, 1998. "Does Economic Analysis Improve the Quality of Foreign Assistance?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 385-418, September.
  3. Isham, Jonathan & Kaufmann,Daniel, 1995. "The forgotten rationale for policy reform : the productivity of investment projects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1549, The World Bank.
  4. Dewald, Michael & Weder, Rolf, 1996. "Comparative advantage and bilateral foreign aid policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 549-556, March.
  5. Kaufmann, Daniel & Wang, Yan, 1995. "Macroeconomic policies and project performance in the social sectors: A model of human capital production and evidence from LDCs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 751-765, May.
  6. Kilby, C., 1994. "World Bank-borrower relations and project supervision," Discussion Paper 1994-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
  8. Pohl, Gerhard & Mihaljek, Dubravko, 1992. "Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice: A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1,015 World Bank Projects," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 255-77, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar, 2005. "Does the World Bank have any impact on human development of the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 422-432, December.
  2. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher & Fleck, Robert K., 2001. "World Bank Independence: A Model and Statistical Analysis of U.S. Influence," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 53, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  3. Christopher Kilby, 2012. "Assessing the contribution of donor agencies to aid effectiveness: The impact of World Bank preparation on project outcomes," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 20, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
  4. Kilby, Christopher, 1995. "World Bank Borrower Relations and Project Supervision," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 32, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  5. Lodewijk Smets & Stephen Knack & Nadia Molenaers, 2013. "Political ideology, quality at entry and the success of economic reform programs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 447-476, December.
  6. Dreher, Axel & Klasen, Stephan & Vreeland, James Raymond & Werker, Eric, 2010. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically-Driven Aid Less Effective?," IZA Discussion Papers 4820, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Hans-Rimbert Hemmer & Andreas Lorenz, 2003. "What determines the success or failure of german bilateral financial aid?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 507-549, September.
  8. Tierney, Michael J. & Nielson, Daniel L. & Hawkins, Darren G. & Roberts, J. Timmons & Findley, Michael G. & Powers, Ryan M. & Parks, Bradley & Wilson, Sven E. & Hicks, Robert L., 2011. "More Dollars than Sense: Refining Our Knowledge of Development Finance Using AidData," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 1891-1906.
  9. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 288-302.
  10. Kilby, Christopher, 2013. "The political economy of project preparation: An empirical analysis of World Bank projects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 211-225.
  11. Limodio, Nicola, 2011. "The success of infrastructure projects in low-income countries and the role of selectivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5694, The World Bank.
  12. Kraay, Aart & Kraay, Aart & Murrell, Peter, 2013. "Misunderestimating corruption," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6488, The World Bank.
  13. Wane, Waly, 2004. "The quality of foreign aid : country selectivity or donors incentives?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3325, The World Bank.

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