A decision theoretic analysis of the unit root hypothesis using mixtures of elliptical models
AbstractThis paper develops a formal decision theoretic approach to testing for a unit root in economic time series. The approach is empirically implemented by specifying a loss function based on predictive variances; models are chosen so as to minimize expected loss. In addition, the paper broadens the class of likelihood functions traditionally considered in the Bayesian unit root literature. Empirical results indicate that, while the posterior probability of trend-stationarity is quite high for most of the series considered, the unit root model is often selected in the decision theoretic analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1991-50.
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://center.uvt.nl
Time Series; Unit Root;
Other versions of this item:
- Koop, Gary & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "A Decision-Theoretic Analysis of the Unit-Root Hypothesis Using Mixtures of Elliptical Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107, January.
- Koop, G. & Steel, M.F.J., 1991. "A Decision Theoretic Analysis of the Unit Root Hypothesis Using Mixtures of Elliptical Models," Papers 9150, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1993.
"Robust bayesian inference in elliptical regression models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 345-363.
- Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M.F.J., 1990. "Robust Bayesian inference in elliptical regression models," Discussion Paper 1990-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M., 1990. "Robust Bayesian Inference In Elliptical Regression Models," Papers 9032, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Peter C. Schotman & Herman K. van Dijk, 1991.
"On Bayesian routes to unit roots,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
43, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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