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Forecasting, misspecification and unit roots: The case of Ar(1) versus ARMA(1,1)

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  • Magnus, J.R.
  • Pesaran, B.

    (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research in its series Discussion Paper with number 1990-2.

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    Date of creation: 1990
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    Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubcen:19902

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    Web page: http://center.uvt.nl

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
    2. Fuller, Wayne A. & Hasza, David P., 1980. "Predictors for the first-order autoregressive process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 139-157, June.
    3. Dufour, J.M., 1983. "Unbiasedness of Predictions From Estimated Vector Autoregressions," Cahiers de recherche 8330, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1984. "Unbiasedness of Predictions from Estimated Autoregressions When the True Order Is Unknown," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 209-15, January.
    5. Cryer, Jonathan D. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N.E., 1989. "Mirror-Image and Invariant Distributions in ARMA Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 36-52, April.
    6. Magnus, J.R. & Pesaran, B., 1988. "The bias of forecasts from a first-order autoregression (Revised version)," Discussion Paper 1988-2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    8. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May.
    9. Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1989. "The exact multi-period mean-square forecast error for the first-order autoregressive model with an intercept," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 157-179, October.
    10. Magnus, J.R., 1986. "The exact moments of a ratio of quadratic forms in normal variables," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153219, Tilburg University.
    11. Hoque, Asraul & Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1988. "The exact multi-period mean-square forecast error for the first-order autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 327-346, November.
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