Good News is No News
AbstractNews plays a crucial role in determining prices in financial markets. In an efficient market, current prices fully and correctly reflect all available information, such that only truly new information leads to price adjustment. This lecture shows that using high-frequency data makes it possible to accurately measure the reaction of stock prices on the New York stock exchange to new information related to the Federal funds target rate. An unexpected change in the target rate of 25 basis points leads to a return of slightly more than one percent within five minutes after the news announcement. Furthermore, the effects of positive and negative news on stock prices are fundamentally different. In case of positive news the stock market reaction depends upon the magnitude of the unexpected decrease of the interest rate; in case of negative news, stock prices only respond to the fact that an unexpected rate increase occurs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Inaugural Address with number EIA-2007-031-F&A.
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2007
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Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
Federal funds target rate; monetary announcements; interest rate surprises; high-frequency data; stock return predictability; large data sets; factor analysis; model instability; structural breaks;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-03-08 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MST-2008-03-08 (Market Microstructure)
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