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Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity?

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Author Info
Huisman, R.
Mahieu, R.J.
Mulder, A. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

According to uncovered interest rate Parity (UIP), the expected relative change in an exchange rate is equal to the difference between interest rates between the two currencies. Empirically, UIP is frequently rejected. In this paper, we examine whether exchange rates have at least any tendency to move in the direction predicted by UIP and whether exchange rates tend to move more in line with UIP in periods with large interest rate differentials.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/8993
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2007-012-F&A Revision_Date: 2009-07-29.

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Date of creation: 19 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:30009940

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates; Uncovered interest rate parity; Logit models;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
  5. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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