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The Cost of Technical Trading Rules in the Forex Market: A Utility-based Evaluation

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Author Info
Dewachter, H.D.R.
Lyrio, M. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

We compute the opportunity cost for rational risk averse agents of using technical trading rules in the foreign exchange rate market. Our purpose is to investigate whether these rules can be interpreted as near-rational investment strategies for rational investors. We analyze four di.erent exchange rates and find that the opportunity cost of using chartist rules tends to be prohibitively high. We also present a method to decompose this opportunity cost into parts related to investor's irrationality and misallocation of wealth. The results show that irrationality of chartist beliefs is an important component of the total opportunity cost of using technical trading rules.

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Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2003-052-F&A Revision_Date: 2009-07-29.

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Date of creation: 19 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:3000455

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Keywords: technical trading rule; exchange rate;

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  1. Michael W. Brandt, 1999. "Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1609-1645, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Blake LeBaron, . "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearities in Foreign Exchange?," Working papers _005, University of Wisconsin - Madison. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2005. "The economic value of technical trading rules: a nonparametric utility-based approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 41-62. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Skouras, Spyros, 2001. "Financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 213-244, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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