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Fund liquidation, self-selection and look-ahead bias in the hedge fund industry

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Author Info
Horst, J.R. ter
Verbeek, M.J.C.M. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases. In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentangle look-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due to fund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarily report their information to data vendors and may decide to stop doing so. By extending existing methodology, we analyze persistence in hedge fund performance over the period 1994-2000, taking into account the above biases. The results show that look-ahead biases due to liquidation and self-selection enforce each other and may lead to overestimating expected returns by as much as 8% per year. Overall, the results are consistent with positive persistence in hedge fund returns at horizons of two and four quarters.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2004-104-F&A Revision_Date: 2009-07-29.

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Date of creation: 10 Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:30001967

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Related research
Keywords: Hedge funds; survival; self-selection; look-ahead bias; performance persistence;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 327-342, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
  7. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann, 2001. "Hedge Funds With Style," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm177, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
  11. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. J. Fitzgerald & P. Gottschalk & R. Moffitt, . "An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1156-98, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jenke Ter Horst & Marno Verbeek, 2000. "Estimating Short-Run Persistence In Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 646-655, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gilles Daniel & Didier Sornette & Peter Wohrmann, 2008. "Look-Ahead Benchmark Bias in Portfolio Performance Evaluation," Quantitative Finance Papers 0810.1922, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jens Carsten Jackwerth & James E. Hodder & Olga Kolokolova, 2008. "Recovering Delisting Returns of Hedge Funds," CoFE Discussion Paper 08-09, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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