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Striking Oil: Another Puzzle

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Author Info
Driesprong, G.
Jacobsen, B.
Maat, B. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)
Abstract

We find that changes in oil prices strongly predict future stock market returns in many countries in the world. In our thirty year sample of monthly data for developed stock markets, we find statistically significant predictability in 12 out of the 18 countries and in a world market index. For our shorter time series of emerging markets we obtain similar results. We show that these results are economically significant and robust with respect to the sample period, different kind of oil prices we consider and well known effects like the January effect and the Halloween effect.

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Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2003-082-F&A Revision_Date: 2009-07-29.

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Date of creation: 07 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:30001133

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Related research
Keywords: return predictability; oil prices; international stock markets; market efficiency; stock returns; besliskunde;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
  7. Mark A. Hooker, 1999. "Oil and the macroeconomy revisited," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans, 2001. "Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Frank de Jong & Frans A. de Roon, 2001. "Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-113/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Glosten, L. R. & Jagannathan, R., 1994. "A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-160, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jong, F. de & Roon, F.A. de, 2001. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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