Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance
AbstractHedge funds databases are typically subject to high attrition ratesbecause of fund termination and self-selection. Even when all fundsare included up to their last available return, one cannot preventthat ex post conditioning biases a.ect standard estimates ofperformance persistence. In this paper we analyze the persistence inthe performance of U.S. hedge funds taking into account look-aheadbias (multi-period sampling bias). To do so, we model attrition ofhedge funds and analyze how it depends upon historical performance.Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias inmeasures for performance persistence. The results show that the impactof look-ahead bias is quite severe, even though positive and negativesurvival-related biases are sometimes suggested to cancel out. Athorizons of one and four quarters, we find clear evidence of positivepersistence in hedge fund returns, also after correcting forinvestment style. At the two-year horizon, past winning funds tend toperform poorly in the future.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2002-104-F&A.
Date of creation: 19 Nov 2002
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survival; performance measurement; investments; individual profiles; hedge funds;
Other versions of this item:
- Baquero, G. & Horst, J.R. ter & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Discussion Paper 2002-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-11-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2002-11-28 (Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2002-11-28 (Risk Management)
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- Baquero, G. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2005. "A Portrait of Hedge Fund Investors: Flows, Performance and Smart Money," Research Paper ERS-2005-068-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- Mark Carlson & Jason Steinman, 2008. "Market conditions and hedge fund survival," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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