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Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

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Author Info
Baquero, G.
Horst, J.R. ter
Verbeek, M.J.C.M. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

Hedge funds databases are typically subject to high attrition rates because of fund termination and self-selection. Even when all funds are included up to their last available return, one cannot prevent that ex post conditioning biases a.ect standard estimates of performance persistence. In this paper we analyze the persistence in the performance of U.S. hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). To do so, we model attrition of hedge funds and analyze how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in measures for performance persistence. The results show that the impact of look-ahead bias is quite severe, even though positive and negative survival-related biases are sometimes suggested to cancel out. At horizons of one and four quarters, we find clear evidence of positive persistence in hedge fund returns, also after correcting for investment style. At the two-year horizon, past winning funds tend to perform poorly in the future.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2002-104-F&A Revision_Date: 2009-07-29.

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Date of creation: 19 Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:2002264

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Related research
Keywords: hedge funds; performance measurement; individual profiles; survival; investments;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann, 2001. "Hedge Funds With Style," NBER Working Papers 8173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 327-342, September. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2006. "Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 12015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark Carlson & Jason Steinman, 2008. "Market conditions and hedge fund survival," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Baquero, G. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2005. "A Portrait of Hedge Fund Investors: Flows, Performance and Smart Money," Research Paper ERS-2005-068-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cécile Moigne & Patrick Savaria, 2006. "Relative importance of hedge fund characteristics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 419-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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