Modeling Potentially Time-Varying Effects of Promotions on Sales
AbstractA commonly applied modeling tool for the analysis of promotional effects onweekly sales data is a linear regression model. Usually, such a model includes0/1 dummy variables for promotions, where weeks with a promotion get a valueof 1. When these variables are included in a model with parameters which areconstant over time, the market researcher implicitly makes two important but ratherrestrictive assumptions. The first is that anytime a dummy variable takes a value of1 and the relevant parameter is significant, there is a non-zero effect of promotionon sales. The second is that this effect is constant across all weeks.In many practical cases however, one may conjecture that the effects of promo-tion are not constant over time. Therefore, we propose a new and rather parsimo-nious econometric model for the purpose of measuring the effects of promotions,while allowing for time-variation in these effects. The main idea is that promotionscan (but not necessarily) lead to positive and suddenly large values of sales in thesame week, and that they can perhaps lead to large negative values in the week there-after, if there is a, what is called, post-promotion dip. We discuss representation and interpretation of the model, and we outline the maximum likelihood parameterestimation method. Simulation results suggest that the estimation method is quitereliable and that the distribution of the estimator is approximately normal. Weillustrate the model in substantial detail on two sets of empirical data in order toindicate its practical usefulness
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2001-05-MKT.
Date of creation: 30 Jan 2001
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ales; censored regression; promotions; time-varying effects;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-02-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2001-03-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-LAB-2001-02-27 (Labour Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Blattberg & Richard Briesch & Edward J. Fox, 1995. "How Promotions Work," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G122-G132.
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- repec:fth:erroem:9907/a is not listed on IDEAS
- Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "The Persistence of Marketing Effects on Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
- Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D., 1995. "Empirical generalizations about market evolution and stationarity," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358840, Tilburg University.
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