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Modeling Potentially Time-Varying Effects of Promotions on Sales

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Author Info
Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
Paap, R.
Sijthoff, Ph.A. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

A commonly applied modeling tool for the analysis of promotional effects on weekly sales data is a linear regression model. Usually, such a model includes 0/1 dummy variables for promotions, where weeks with a promotion get a value of 1. When these variables are included in a model with parameters which are constant over time, the market researcher implicitly makes two important but rather restrictive assumptions. The first is that anytime a dummy variable takes a value of 1 and the relevant parameter is significant, there is a non-zero effect of promotion on sales. The second is that this effect is constant across all weeks. In many practical cases however, one may conjecture that the effects of promo- tion are not constant over time. Therefore, we propose a new and rather parsimo- nious econometric model for the purpose of measuring the effects of promotions, while allowing for time-variation in these effects. The main idea is that promotions can (but not necessarily) lead to positive and suddenly large values of sales in the same week, and that they can perhaps lead to large negative values in the week there-after, if there is a, what is called, post-promotion dip. We discuss representation and interpretation of the model, and we outline the maximum likelihood parameter estimation method. Simulation results suggest that the estimation method is quite reliable and that the distribution of the estimator is approximately normal. We illustrate the model in substantial detail on two sets of empirical data in order to indicate its practical usefulness

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Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2001-05-MKT Revision_Date: 2009-11-06.

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Date of creation: 30 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:200164

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Related research
Keywords: ales; promotions; time-varying effects; censored regression;

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  1. R. Paap & Ph.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "Does the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Report 108, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 717-744. [Downloadable!]
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