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Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales

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Author Info
Fok, D.
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)

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Abstract

Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of the market shares. An illustration for five tuna fish brands emphasizes the practical relevance of the advocated method.

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Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2000-03-MKT Revision_Date: 2009-11-06.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:20005

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Keywords: sales models; market shares; forecasting;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brodie, Roderick J. & De Kluyver, Cornelis A., 1987. "A comparison of the short term forecasting accuracy of econometric and naive extrapolation models of market share," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 423-437. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Wittink, Dick R., 1987. "Causal market share models in marketing: Neither forecasting nor understanding?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 445-448. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hill, R Carter & Cartwright, P A, 1994. "The Statistical Properties of the Equity Estimator," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 141-47, April.
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  1. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2001. "Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model," Research Paper ERS-2001-25-MKT Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fok, D. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares," Research Paper ERS-2003-044-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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